POST-COUP
WHAT IS HOWARD'S ROLE IN THE ATTEMPTED COUP?

The violence in Dili is hardly an industrial dispute, nor spontaneous ethnic violence. Timor Leste's Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, says the armed attacks are part of an attempted coup, and follow a history of destabilisation attempts. It is likely he knows better than the Australian pundits, who have been speaking simply of 'east-west' rivalry.

By TIM ANDERSON

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THE VIOLENCE in Dili is hardly an industrial dispute, nor spontaneous
ethnic violence. Timor Leste's Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, says the
armed attacks are part of an attempted coup, and follow a history of
destabilisation attempts. It is likely he knows better than the Australian
pundits, who have been speaking simply of 'east-west' rivalry, and an
'immature' nation, unready for independence.

Such caricatures of the country and the government are misleading and
dangerous. There has been destabilisation of the legitimate Fretilin
government, ever since independence, and the Howard government has played a
part. An important question now is: how much of a part?

A fairly high level of organisation, and confidence, can be seen both in
the mobilisation of weapons and the international appeals from the army
defectors. Heavy weapons were taken, and renegade leader Alfredo Reinado
(who joined Gastao Salsinha, leader of the sacked soldiers) says he
welcomes the arrival Australian troops, and wants to 'have a VB' with the
Aussies.

Such familiarity from a person engaged in murder and mutiny is disturbing.
And instead of calling Reinado and his followers 'criminals' or
'terrorists', John Howard has turned on the Alkatiri government. As the
troops roll in Howard says: "The country has not been well governed .. the
real challenge is to get a government that has the confidence of the
local people".

Coup plotters rarely act without assurances of outside support, or at the
least post-coup recognition. A US guarantee of regime recognition was
central to the Chilean coup of 1973, and the abortive 2002 coup in
Venezuela. More recently in Haiti, even though the US had no credible
alternative candidate, they fomented violence to remove a popular leftist
leader.

Media backing is essential for a coup. Paul Kelly from The Australian
(which has waged a long campaign against the Fretilin government) questions
whether the democratically elected PM of the country "has a long-term role
here as part of the solution". Some diplomats are reported as saying that
the resignation of Alkatiri "may convince the warring gangs to lay down
their arms".

Alkatiri's landslide win
On this argument, PM Alkatiri only "survived" the recent Fretilin
elections, where he faced a possible challenge from a Washington-based
diplomat. In fact, Alkatiri won more than 90% support in the party vote,
and Fretilin retains almost 60% support across the country .

While the internal rivalry between Prime Minister Alkatiri and President
Xanana Gusmao has received a lot of attention, less has been said about
international tensions and destabilisation, which has followed several
disputes.

The dispute over oil and gas is well known. Mari Alkatiri had the support
of all parties in driving a hard line with the Howard government. Many
believe the Timorese were still robbed by a deal Howard continues to call
'generous'.

Less well known are the disputes over agriculture, where Australia and the
World Bank refused to help rehabilitate and build the Timorese rice
industry, and refused to support use of aid money for grain silos. Under
Alkatiri, the Timorese have reduced their rice import-dependence from
two-thirds to one-third of domestic consumption.

After independence an expensive phone service run by Telstra was replaced
by a government joint venture with a Portuguese company. And following a
popular campaign, Timor Leste remains one of the few 'debt free' poor
countries. Alkatiri's consideration here, as economic manager, was to
retain some control over the country's budget, and the building of public
institutions.

In 2005 there was a Church led dispute over the apparent relegation of
religious education to 'voluntary' status in schools. The dispute was
resolved, but not before it had become the focus of an open campaign to
remove Alkatiri, who was branded a 'communist'. During this dispute some
East Timorese were alarmed to see that the US Embassy (and possibly also
the Australians) providing material support (such as portable toilets) to
the demonstrators, effectively backing an opposition movement.

Cuban doctors
Over 2004-06 the Alkatiri government secured the services dozens of Cuban
doctors, and several hundred young Timorese students are now in Cuba,
studying medicine free of charge. No one criticises this valuable
assistance, but the US does all it can to undermine Cuban policy.

It is worth remembering that the suggested 'communist' politics of Fretilin
in 1975 was a major reason for US support for the Indonesian invasion and
occupation. Australia followed suit. Today the 'communist' tag is again
used by Reinado to target the Fretilin government.

Reinado rejects government orders, but has allied himself to Xanana and
Jose Ramos Horta, the two non-Fretilin members of the government. (Ramos
Horta is known to be close to the Bush administration.) It is not clear yet
to what extent Xanana and Ramos Horta have links to Reinado. Alkatiri has
not, contrary to media reports, accused the President of complicity. Yet
the coup attempt proceeds in Xanana's name.

The current situation is complicated by the arming of civilian groups on
both sides of the coup plot, and the fact that troops from several
countries have been invited. Of these, the Portuguese seem to maintain
strongest support for the Timorese government, while the Australians seem
to be apologising for the plotters.

A possible 'junta' to be installed by Australian intervention (already
hinted at by Kirsty Sword Gusmao) could include nominees of the Catholic
bishops, Ramos Horta and an ailing Xanana (ill with kidney disease). The
forced removal of Mari Alkatiri, his ministers and army chief Taur Matan
Ruak, and the presence of occupying troops till next year's election might
seriously undermine Fretilin's dominant position. But then again, the coup
might fail.

Occupying armies are bad news for democracy. The Australian government
comes to its most recent intervention in Timor Leste literally 'blooded'
from its spectacularly unsuccessful interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and
the Solomons.

The current intervention may be necessary, if it has been legitimately
called for by the East Timorese government; but it is also a great danger
for the country's democracy. Australian people, who strongly supported
independence for the people of Timor Leste, should watch Howard's latest
intervention very closely.

* Tim Anderson is an academic who has visited East Timor several times, both
before and after independence.