Police and military authorities are alarmed at the sudden build-up of weapons in the weeks leading up to the fifth national election since Papua New Guinea gained independence from Australia in 1975.
Although there have often been violent clashes in past elections, especially in the mountainous Highlands region where tribal fighting is traditional but illegal, officials say this is the first time smuggling of high-powered weapons has become rampant.
One intelligence report said: "Lae city, Finschafen and Wau/Bulolo areas have the potential to stir up trouble because candidates have AK47 guns."
The reports describe Lae, the nation's second-largest city with large squatter settlements, as having become a "dangerous place". The capital, Port Moresby, has long had that reputation.
Police fear the growing links between the quaintly named rascals - a catch-all phrase for criminals from pickpockets to hoodlums and bandits - and politicians have finally become a serious political problem.
Intelligence reports speak of the presence of high-powered firearms such as M16s, M203s, N79s, AK47s and SKS as well as others such as .303s and .22s mounted with telescopic sights in "every village" in some parts of Eastern Highlands.
There are also reports of "military-style trenches" and villagers armed with high explosives, including dynamite and grenades.
Another Highlands province, Enga, is said to be in a state of tension following reports about a container of high-powered weapons being dumped in a river.
"The entire province is volatile and infested with high-powered weapons due to the aggressiveness of the local people and the high rate of arms smuggling," said the intelligence report.
"These arms are speculated to be used during and after the elections."
Two men were recently arrested and charged with being in possession of four World War Two vintage bombs, dug up from an area in Morobe that had been occupied by Japanese soldiers during the war. They were said to be planning on using them against rivals.
Calling for arrests, the daily newspaper Post-Courier said: "Quite a few leaders, both sitting national MPs and others in their respective communities, are getting involved in firearms smuggling into their areas where these weapons are now in the hands of their supporters - some who have been identified as criminals.
"Just where is this country heading to if leaders are prepared to break all laws and involve themselves in such criminal activities?"
The paper reminded its readers Papua New Guinea was a democratic country but an election conducted "under the threat of guns is not a free election at all".
Observers believe the weapons problem has been heightened by the country's political vacuum since Prime Minister Sir Julius Chan stepped aside in the face of popular demand in March to enable a commission of inquiry to probe the controversial US$36 million Sandline mercenary affair.
Chan has now resumed office, claiming the inquiry has vindicated him over allegations of corruption. He immediately faced a crisis over the kidnapping of MP John Momis, a Chan critic, by Bougainville Revolutionary Army rebels.
While Momis was freed unharmed two days later, peace hopes in Bougainville suffered a setback when the Chan government promoted hardliner Colonel Leo Nuia to brigadier-general and appointed him commander of the PNG Defence Force.
Controversial Nuia once admitted the dumping of executed Bougainvilleans at sea from a helicopter.
A University of Papua New Guinea politics lecturer, Alan Robson, sees the guns problem as a symptom of what he calls PNG's "unrepresentative democracy". He concedes the country still has a vital and enthusiastic democracy.
"Yet many problems stem from the grafting of an Australian-style constituency-based electoral system onto a clan-based social system," Robson says.
"Electors are primarily motivated by support for wantok (or clan) representatives."
In the 1992 election, 1655 candidates contested 109 seats - compared with 2370 candidates this month.
Half the winning candidates received less than 20 per cent of the vote in their electorate. Only five candidates scored 50 per cent or more.
Nine winners polled less than 10 per cent - with the lowest winning margin being 5.9 per cent.
"The result is that governments are elected by a small fraction of the total voting population in spite of high voter turn-outs," says Robson.
"Electorate control on the activities of governments is, therefore, minimal."
In spite of the huge turnover of MPs, there has been relative stability in the small group of elite politicians who have been long-term survivors and in control.
For example, there have been just four prime ministers since independence. All four - Chan, Paias Wingti, speaker Sir Rabbie Namaliu and the nation's founding "Chief", Sir Michael Somare - are contesting the current poll. - APN
David Robie is a New Zealand journalist and author specialising in Pacific affairs. He is currently lecturer in journalism at the University of Papua New Guinea.
